With the rain-busting El Niño at play, there is only a 30% chance of normal rain during this year’s southwest monsoon, which delivers about 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, according to Skymet. There is a 55% probability of belownormal rainfall this year.
Skymet had predicted normal rains in its preliminary monsoon forecast in February. While the probability of a normal monsoon was kept at about 50%, the forecast also attached a significant chance of rainfall ending in below-normal range.
Rainfall is expected to get better in the second half of the season as the El Niño phenomenon — associated with the warming of the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean — is expected to weaken.